Hello, hoopheads! Like it or not, the Indiana Fever (23-12) continue to play some of the best basketball in the WNBA, most recently winning for the fourth time in a row and 13th time in 17 games since a 10-8 start while clinching the head-to-head tiebreaker over the team directly behind them in the standings, the Atlanta Dream (21-13). The latest win wasn’t Indiana’s prettiest during its recent run, requiring a late Atlanta collapse, three potential game-winners missed on the Dream’s final possession of regulation, and as I just kinda spoiled, overtime. The end result, however, was that the Fever pulled within a half-game of the Las Vegas Aces (24-12), with whom they are tied in the loss column and over whom they also own the tiebreaker. Indiana’s schedule is a good bit harder than Las Vegas’ the rest of the way, including two games against the Minnesota Lynx to finish the regular season, but the Fever will have the inside track to the No. 3 seed for as long as that loss-column tie with Las Vegas persists.
Caitlin Clark led the way with 26 points and came up one assist shy of another 20/10 game to extend her WNBA record in that category while committing just one of her five turnovers after halftime, and Kelsey Mitchell kept her WNBA-record 20-point scoring streak alive (now 19 straight games) despite going 9-for-22 (40.9%) from the field and needing the extra five minutes to get to 20. The day belonged to Makayla “KK” Timpson, however, as she scored 20 points on 9-for-13 (69.2%) from the field while adding 7 rebounds and a block without a turnover. Timpson being inserted first into the rotation — her minutes have almost doubled over the last 11 games compared to previously — and then more recently into the starting five seems to have taken the Fever to another level. They’re 9-2 since Timpson’s minutes began to ramp up, while the current win streak coincides with her current stint as a starter. They’re 5-0 overall with Timpson as a starter, including a start in the first game of the 11-game stretch, and given the career-best outing yesterday, I think it’s safe to say Timpson’s not going back to the bench any time soon.
The only game on tonight’s schedule sees the Dallas Wings (20-15) visit the Golden State Valkyries (24-9) (Peacock/NBCSN/local affiliates), who are looking to win a sixth straight game and finish a three-game sweep of the series with the Wings. Golden State won the first meeting between the teams by an 11-point margin at home during Commissioner’s Cup play and the second by an 18-point margin 10 days ago in Dallas, part of the Valkyries’ 24-4 (.857) record against everyone other than Minnesota and Las Vegas. That dominance is the entire reason that Golden State is the last team left with a realistic chance to catch the Lynx for the top seed, given that the Valkyries are 0-5 against the Lynx and Aces. That said, the Valkyries might not have any margin for error if they’re going to catch the Lynx, and that includes needing to win both of the head-to-head meetings left with Minnesota.
Golden State sits two games behind Minnesota in the loss column, so at first glance, it would seem that winning the pair of head-to-head games — the first of which is coming up on Wednesday — would put the Valkyries in a very strong position. The problem is, that would only split the season series between the Lynx and Valkyries at 2-2, which would send a potential tie between the teams to their records against teams with winning records. Should the Valkyries, who are 11-7 (.611) against winning teams, win both games against Minnesota, as well as tonight’s game and their upcoming visit to Brooklyn, they’ll finish the regular season with a 15-7 (.682) record against winning teams. Throw in all of their other remaining games to finish 35-9 overall, and unfortunately, they would still need help from Minnesota. If the Lynx, who are currently 12-4 (.750) against winning teams, win their five such games that aren’t against Golden State, as well as their last game ever against the Connecticut Sun, they’d also finish 35-9 and have a 17-6 (.739) mark against winning teams, which would beat out Golden State for the top spot. Assuming they finish the season on a 16-game win streak, the Valks would only need the Lynx to lose one of those other six games to claim the top spot outright, but any loss Golden State takes only increases the amount of help it’s going to need, and the Lynx haven’t been very helpful so far.
The Wings are looking increasingly likely to be either Minnesota or Golden State’s first-round playoff opponent, needing a win tonight to avoid falling a game behind the Washington Mystics (20-14) and two behind the New York Liberty (22-14) in sixth and seventh, respectively. A tie with the Mystics is also effectively as good as a one-game deficit for the Wings, as Washington owns the head-to-head tiebreaker, and with the Wings being a game behind in the loss column, they are going to need multiple Washington losses even if they don’t take any more themselves. The Wings have the tiebreaker on the Liberty, so they wouldn’t need as much help from New York, but they can’t afford to give games away and increase the ask from the Libs, either. The good news for the Wings is that they finish up with seven straight against losing teams after a game against the Fever on Thursday, but the bad news is they’ve lost seven straight to winning teams and will be in a pretty deep hole if they drop the next two. There may be some more good news tonight if Jessica Shepard, who is listed as probable, returns from an ankle injury, but Azzi Fudd and Aziaha James have been ruled out.