Hello, hoopheads! The WNBA standings got a bit of a shakeup last night, as the Indiana Fever (24-12) held off the Toronto Tempo’s (10-24) valiant comeback effort in Brittney Sykes’ return from a two-month absence, while the Atlanta Dream (22-13) kept the Las Vegas Aces (24-13) at arm’s length for pretty much the entire second half of a game that you have heard saw Las Vegas coach Becky Hammon ejected. Indiana already had the inside track to claim the No. 3 seed in the playoffs, as it was tied with Las Vegas in the loss column and owns the head-to-head tiebreaker. Last night’s results, however, mean the Fever are currently the outright third-place team in the standings and that the Aces can’t end up higher than them in the playoff bracket without multiple Indiana losses in its final eight games. It’s entirely possible that the Fever will lose two or more games the rest of the way, given they have five games left against playoff teams, two of which are against the league-leading Minnesota Lynx (29-7) to close out the regular season, although it’s no guarantee that the Lynx have anything to play for by then. Despite being 9-8 (.529) since starting 15-5 (.750), it’s also entirely possible, and probably more likely than not, that Las Vegas doesn’t lose again, as it faces seven straight non-playoff teams to close out the season. There’s still no denying, however, that the champs have left themselves in a position of needing these games not just to regain their momentum, but to protect their top-four standing and home-court advantage to start the playoffs.. Last night’s loss also left Las Vegas tied with fifth-place Atlanta in the loss column, although the Dream will need help from the Aces to overcome the head-to-head tiebreaker and possibly steal the No. 4 seed.
Elsewhere last night, my beloved-but-snakebitten New York Liberty (22-15) let a 12-game win streak for playoff teams against non-playoff teams be snapped by the Chicago Sky (14-22), who got a measure of revenge for a pair of one-point losses to the Liberty earlier this season. The loss didn’t impact the Libs’ playoff standing for the time being, but it dropped them behind the Washington Mystics in the loss column despite a half-game lead, and brought their loss-column cushion over the Dallas Wings (20-16) down to one game. More importantly, the Liberty lost MVP Grand Slam winner Jonquel Jones to a rolled ankle in the first half, with no immediate update on her status postgame. Given this team’s shitty injury luck and tendency to obfuscate over the last two seasons, I’d be willing to bet that head coach Chris DeMarco Unremarkable Coach Man will inform the media at some point before Saturday that “Her Air Guitarness” has thankfully avoided serious injury, is considered day-to-day, officially has no timetable for return, and they’re hopeful that she can play against Indiana. And then we probably won’t see her until after the FIBA World Cup, with a real chance that her next action is in 2027.
The Fever also had a scare in their win, as Kelsey Mitchell missed the fourth quarter. Head coach Stephanie White said she had “overheated” after the game, however, so it doesn’t seem like she’s in jeopardy of missing Thursday’s game in Dallas or Saturday’s in Brooklyn. Mitchell didn’t even need the fourth quarter to extend her 20-point scoring streak to 20 games, which ties her with A’ja Wilson for a version of the WNBA record that I think is bullshit because it excludes postseason games but allows for multi-season streaks. Wilson’s streak was in fact snapped during the 2023 postseason, and I simply can’t do the mental gymnastics required to pretend there’s a real 20-game streak there as a result. Mitchell is, by any measure, the first player to score 20+ points in 20 straight meaningful WNBA games, and as far as I’m concerned, she’s broken the previous record by four games. That all-inclusive record was previously shared by Wilson and Cynthia Cooper, as opposed to held by Wilson outright, and I also liked the symmetry of the original GOAT and the latest heir to her throne having shared it before Mitchell blew their streak out of the water. Mitchell and Caitlin Clark scored 20+ points in the same game for the 16th time this season, breaking the single-season record for such instances set by Cappie Pondexter and Diana Taurasi with the Phoenix Mercury in 2008. Per my religion, I refuse to let a Cappie mention pass without reiterating my belief that the Basketball Hall of Fame is illegitimate as long as Cappie Pondexter isn’t in it.
The main event of tonight’s two-game slate has the potential to be one of the most important games of the regular season, as the Minnesota Lynx (29-7) visit the Golden State Valkyries (25-9) (10:00 ET, USA Network/local affiliates), who are looking to give their hopes of claiming the top seed in the WNBA playoffs a significant boost. They’re also looking for their first win over Minnesota in franchise history after being swept in the regular season and a first-round playoff series in 2025 and dropping this season’s first two meetings. As I explained on Monday, the reality of the situation is that Golden State needs to win tonight and also in next week’s series finale against the Lynx to have a realistic chance of catching Minnesota. Even a split would leave Golden State needing at least three Minnesota losses in its other six remaining games to catch the Lynx, and also assumes the Valkyries don’t lose another game. Golden State will need further help from Minnesota even if it sweeps the pair to split the season series at 2-2 and pulls even in the loss column, because a tie isn’t going to cut it. If we assume that the Valkyries win out and the Lynx win their six non-Valkyries games, both teams end up with records of 35-9, but Minnesota wins the second tiebreaker, record against winning teams, as it would be 17-6 (.739) and Golden State would be 15-7 (.682). Needing to be perfect and have Minnesota lose once elsewhere is plausible, even if the Lynx are going to be favored in every game they have left. Needing to be perfect and have the Lynx go 3-3 elsewhere is the kind of thing that’s “plausible,” but ain’t gonna happen.
It should go without saying that sweeping a pair of games against the Lynx over a six-day span is easier said than done, because Minnesota hasn’t only been the WNBA’s best team this season, but one of the most consistent teams you could ever hope to see in sports. The Lynx, who have won four in a row, seem to perpetually be on the league’s longest win streak, and they’ll have a share of that distinction again tonight if they can snap Golden State’s six-game run and match Indiana at five in a row. The Lynx are a slight favorite to do that, according to the oddsmakers, despite facing the league’s best home team at 15-4 (.789). That is at least in part because the Lynx are the league’s best road team, having gone an absurd 15-2 (.882) away from home. That’s on pace to be the best road win percentage in league history, an honor which currently belongs to the 1998 Houston Comets at 13-2 (.867), while the 2023 Liberty (17-3, .850) are the only other team to win 85% of their regular-season road games. That Comets team is notable for posting the best regular-season record (27-3, .900) in WNBA history en route to its second of four straight titles, while the Liberty would eventually lose in the WNBA Finals against Las Vegas. Having spent all season gushing about Rookie of the Year Olivia Miles — who deserves to be gushed about, of course — let me take this opportunity to let you know that Napheesa Collier, the two-time MVP runner-up, has scored at least 15 points in all nine games since making her return from dual ankle surgery, and has scored at least 17 points in the last five games while making at least 50% from the field in each. That five-game run is already more than halfway to the longest such streak in WNBA history (nine straight 17/50% games), set by Chelsea Gray during Las Vegas’ 2022 championship season and matched by Wilson earlier this season.
Golden State has been nearly as consistent as Minnesota, with the exception of when it comes time to play Minnesota (against whom the Valkyries are 0-2) or Las Vegas (0-3). I suppose you could argue that there’s nothing more consistent than losing 100% of the time, but kidding aside, the Valkyries have gone 25-4 (.862) against everyone else. The problem for Golden State in this matchup, as far as I can see it, is that Minnesota isn’t really susceptible to the kinds of mental errors that everyone else tends to succumb to when faced with the Valkyries’ disconcerting mix of all-out defensive effort and molasses-slow offensive tempo for 40 minutes. The famous “40 minutes of hell” Arkansas men’s basketball teams of the early 90s come to mind often when I watch Golden State, despite Golden State’s much slower pace on offense, because there is no doubt that the moniker is an apt description of facing them (the defensive principles are also pretty similar). The Valkyries’ formula is a sound one against pretty much any team except Minnesota: limit possessions (Golden State is a distant 15th in possessions per 40 minutes), make all of them as miserable as possible when your opponent has the ball (leads the league in defensive rating allowing 98.0 points per 100 possessions according to Her Hoop Stats) and put up so many 3s (leads the league in 3-point attempt rate at 40.3% of scoring attempts) that opponents can’t keep up. The Lynx unfortunately might just be Golden State’s kryptonite, as they can withstand the defensive pressure and make just as many triples, being the league’s most accurate 3-point shooting team at 39.5%. Going bomb for bomb isn’t necessarily the Lynx’s preferred path to a win, (they’re 12th in 3-point attempt rate at 29.9% of scoring attempts), but it’s certainly one available to them given their accuracy. This isn’t to say that it’s impossible for Golden State to beat Minnesota, but I do think it’s a pretty bad matchup for the Valkyries. I’m not sure they have any others at the moment.
Tonight’s first game sees the Toronto Tempo (10-24) visit the Washington Mystics (20-14) (7:30 ET, local affiliates/League Pass), who will look to consolidate the Liberty’s loss and pull back into a virtual tie in the standings. The Mystics, who are currently one game up in the loss column and have three games in hand, would have the inside track despite the Liberty owning the head-to-head tiebreaker. New York’s loss last night was just the fifth for a playoff team against a non-playoff team in 47 such games since mid-July, and while Toronto gave Indiana a scare in the 42nd playoff team win among those 47 games, it’s hard to imagine they’ll have Sykes in the lineup after returning from injury last night on a minutes restriction.