Hello, hoopheads! As if the WNBA playoff picture needed to get tighter — at least, behind Minnesota (30-7) — last night’s three-game slate went and created a three-way tie in the loss column between the third-place Las Vegas Aces (25-13), fourth-place Indiana Fever (24-13) and fifth-place Atlanta Dream (23-13). With no head-to-head meetings left between the teams, that means that all three could conceivably win out and create a three-way tie for third-through-fifth in the standings, with the tiebreakers eventually deciding which team ends up facing the No. 6 seed while the others vie for the privilege of (most likely) squaring off against Minnesota in the WNBA semifinals. There’s still a long way to go before that happens, and I for one hope that it does not, given that Indiana faces my beloved New York Liberty (22-15) tomorrow night and Atlanta does so in the final two games of the regular season. Desirable or likely or not, I would be remiss not to mention the possibility now that three teams are all sitting on the perfect number of losses.
The most notable of the three games last night saw the Fever fall for only the third time in 12 games in their final meeting this season with the Dallas Wings (21-16), who would still be the No. 8 seed in the playoffs if the season ended today despite the 91-85 win, but clinched the head-to-head tiebreaker over Indiana and only sit three games back. That’s a large deficit to overcome with only seven games to play, but it’s not unheard of, and Dallas won’t face another playoff team the rest of the way while Indiana sees them in four of its final seven games. Last night’s Wings win also allowed Paige Bueckers to even the head-to-head series between herself and Caitlin Clark at 3-3 between the college (1-1, both in the NCAA Tournament) and WNBA levels (now 2-2). Neither of the top-billed stars shot the ball very well last night, as Bueckers had 13 points on 5-for-16 (31.3%) from the field while Clark had 10 points on 4-for-15 (26.7%), but they both had a whole bunch of assists (9 with 3 turnovers for Clark, 8 with 0 turnovers for Bueckers) and had at least one teammate who went off. Arike Ogunbowale led the Wings with 32 points on 12-for-22 (54.5%) from the field and 6-for-7 (85.7%) at the line and Jessica Shepard added a career-high 26 points on 11-for-16 (68.8%) from the field and grabbed 8 rebounds. The win was a sorely needed one for the Wings, despite remaining the 8-seed for the time being, as they had gone 1-11 against playoff teams over the previous couple of months and now have something to build on as they embark on a soft finishing stretch.
Kelsey Mitchell led Indiana with 37 points on 9-for-18 (50%) from the field and 15-for-15 (100%) at the line, extending her WNBA-record 20-point scoring streak to 21 games. It was already a WNBA record, despite what some people say, but I’ll skip the long-winded explanation I’ve given a few times here as to why that is. Just trust me, the old record was 16 if you used parameters that make sense. Mitchell also had just the seventh perfect free-throw shooting performance on at least 15 attempts in WNBA history, joining Elena Delle Donne (twice, including a record 19-for-19 in a 2015 game), Penny Taylor (18 while winning the decisive Game 5 of the 2007 WNBA Finals), Angel McCoughtry (17 in 2012) and both Brittney Sykes and Clark with 15-for-15 games earlier this season. It was the second time Mitchell has gone 11-for-11 or better at the line in her career, both this season, tying Clark, who’s also done it twice this season, for the second-most such games in Fever history. That said, they’re still not halfway to Tamika Catchings’ franchise record of five perfect games with more than 10 attempts at the line. Catchings also had five more perfect games with exactly 10 free throw attempts. Neither current player has any such games, so it’s fair to say they still have a lot of free throws to make if either is going to be Indiana’s GOAT in this endeavor.
Tonight’s three-game slate features one meeting of playoff teams, and it’s a potential first-round preview as the Minnesota Lynx (30-7) visit the Washington Mystics (21-14) (7:30 ET, ION/League Pass). There’s some good news on the Lynx injury report, as Olivia Miles is listed as probable after leaving Wednesday’s big win over Golden State in the fourth quarter with an ankle injury. Somewhat amusingly, the player whose foot Miles stepped on to cause her injury, Napheesa Collier, is actually listed as out for this game, although the reason is “rest” and one could hardly blame Lynx coach Cheryl Reeve for getting Phee an extra night off here and there given she’s only been back from dual ankle surgery for 10 games. I’m guessing Phee would be playing tonight if Minnesota had lost on Wednesday and potentially needed a perfect finish to hold off Golden State for the top seed in the playoffs, but I suppose we’ll never know. This will be the third and final meeting between the teams in the regular season, although it’s entirely possible that Washington ends up as the No. 8 seed given that six-through-eight is packed about as tightly as three-through-five. The bottom three teams are also all within striking distance of a top-four finish.
If the first two meetings were any indication, a playoff series between these teams at any point could be pretty interesting, as both games were won by the road team to spoil the home team’s Pride celebration back in June. Those games were perhaps the first real sign that the Mystic Babies were going to turn their 5-7 (.417) start into a season that still has the potential for home-court advantage in a playoff series. Both games came down to the final seconds, with Washington winning the first by five points while Minnesota took the rematch by two points three days later. They were not the Lynx’s prettiest games, featuring two of only five offensive ratings they’ve posted below 100 (and 95) points per 100 possessions according to Her Hoop Stats, but that also doesn’t look as surprising in retrospect. That’s because Washington has risen to second in defensive rating (99.9 points per 100 possessions according to Her Hoop Stats), trailing only Golden State (98.2) and ever so slightly ahead of Minnesota (100). The Lynx, of course, have a much bigger advantage in offensive rating than the Mystics’ rounding error of a lead at the other end, as Minnesota leads the league with a mark of 112.1 points per 100 possessions for the season while Washington is 13th at 100.2. If the Mystics can drag the Lynx into the mud again, however, we could be in for another good one.
As an aside, the top four teams in offensive rating would’ve led the league last year, six teams have offensive ratings that would’ve been first or second, and eight have ratings that would’ve been in the top three. The top eight also have ratings of at least 105 points per 100 possessions, whereas last year’s top eight (of 13 as opposed to 15) were the cohort that had offensive ratings above 100. You can probably see where this thought is going, but with the offensive explosion still in full swing this late in the season, there is simply no denying my season-long mantra that 105 is the new 100, at least until the playoffs start. Postseason officiating tends to be more lenient in pretty much every sport I’ve ever watched, so all bets are off at that point.
Tonight’s other early tip sees the Golden State Valkyries (25-10) visit the Chicago Sky (14-22) (7:30 ET, ION/League Pass) looking to bounce back from Wednesday’s loss to Minnesota. The Valkyries have been about as dominant as you could ask against everyone other than the Lynx and Aces, against whom they’re 0-6 combined while they’re 25-4 (.862) against the rest of the league. It’s fair to wonder, however, if the Valkyries might experience any kind of letdown now that their pursuit of the top spot in the playoff bracket is over in every way except for mathematically. The Sky are looking for their third straight win after knocking off my beloved-but-bonkers-inducing New York Liberty on Tuesday, but they’re 0-4 when looking for a third straight win this season and will be without DiJonai Carrington while Aicha Coulibaly is questionable and Skylar Diggins remains sidelined.
The last game of the night is the third and final meeting this season between expansion sisters the Portland Fire (15-20) and the Toronto Tempo (10-25) (10:00 ET, ION/League Pass), and if you’re wondering why this game is starting so late, it’s because Canada’s Team is the one taking the longer road trip to host the game in Vancouver. The Tempo will look for their first win over the Fire, but will have to do it without Marina Mabrey, Nyabra Sabally and Maria Conde.