Hello, hoopheads! Wednesday was a predictably quiet night in the WNBA, the lone game of some interest plays directly into the more interesting of tonight’s two games, and I’m getting a very late start on today’s newsletter because of an update my laptop forced that took ages my overwhelming addiction to Marvel Snap’s draft mode circumstances beyond my control, so we’re just going to jump right into tonight’s action. I promise to tell you what you need to know about the Golden State Valkyries’ 89-64 thrashing of the lowly and detestable Connecticut Sun (10-28) last night in due time, because tonight’s main event sees the Golden State Valkyries (27-11) visit my beloved New York Liberty (23-15) (8:00 ET, Prime Video/local affiliates) for Golden State’s sixth game in 11 days. The Libs, on the other hand, have had four days off, but they’re looking for their first win against Golden State in a couple days over 14 months. Golden State won this year’s first two meetings in late May in Brooklyn and then in late June at Ballhalla, as well as the last of four 2025 meetings in early September after New York won the first three encounters.
It feels like ages ago that the Liberty were reigning champions and the Valks were reeling off expansion team firsts, but that Valkyries win last September was the first one for an expansion team over a reigning WNBA champion in the 21st century and snapped an 18-game win streak for champs in such scenarios. Shouts to myself from 11 months ago for skeeting that, because I did not feel like trying to find the specific numbers in my Google docs. The Liberty were without Leonie Fiebich and Sabrina Ionescu when the Valkyries handed them a 17-point home loss in May while holding New York to 6-of-24 (25%) from deep and going 13-for-35 (37.1%) themselves. On the other hand, the Libs were as close to full strength as they’ll be tonight — Satou Sabally was the only rotation player absent — when they lost by nine points at Ballhalla on a night when the Valkyries uncharacteristically hit 56.8% inside the arc to offset a 7-for-28 (25%) showing from deep. Interior defense hasn’t been the Liberty’s greatest strength (they’re 7th allowing 51.5% inside the arc), but making 2s is Golden State’s greatest weakness (it’s 14th hitting 48.7%) and the Liberty held the Valkyries to 41.7% inside the arc the first time they played, so it was a bit of a headscratcher. That said, the Liberty were playing for the seventh time in 15 days and were at the end of a four-game West Coast trip, so it’s possible that their effort wasn’t what you’d call the greatest. (Translation: their effort was horrendous for three quarters, but they dominated the fourth)
Golden State’s in the midst of its own grueling stretch of schedule, which is a literal byproduct of having played a bit less frequently than everyone else over the season’s first 2.5 months, as the Valkyries are playing catch-up such that all 15 teams head into the World Cup break with exactly four games remaining. Golden State coach Natalie Nakase did exactly what I suspected that she might last night, given the schedule and opponent, and gave some of her regulars a night off without actually giving anyone the night off. No one played more than 20:23 (the amount of run logged by Kayla Thornton in a scoreless outing) as Golden State improved to 26-5 (.839) against everyone other than Minnesota and Las Vegas, with Gabby Williams playing under 16 minutes, Cecilia Zandalasini playing just over 11 and Tiffany Hayes needing just 2:58 to score 5 points. I’m assuming that means that the Valkyries rotation will look relatively normal tonight, since they have two whole days off before playing a seventh game in 14 days at Portland, but Nakase doesn’t have to file an injury report until 1:00 ET and could still conceivably give anyone and everyone a night of rest. With five games against non-playoff teams left after tonight Liberty and the ability to lose at least one game without jeopardizing the No. 2 seed in the playoffs, there isn’t any particular need for Golden State to go hard after this one. That said, there is also the simple fact that these two teams could easily end up as first-round playoff opponents, and I’m sure the Valkyries would like to have the psychological edge that would come with a sweep this season and four straight wins dating to last June.
As for the Liberty, all has been quiet on the Brooklyn front since Fiebich’s triumphant return in the team’s crucial and cathartic win over the Indiana Fever (23-15) on Saturday. That win has the Liberty within one game of Indiana and two of both Las Vegas (26-13) and Atlanta (25-13) in the loss column, with New York currently in tenuous possession of the tiebreaker over Indiana after a 2-2 season-series split, because the Liberty have a 9-9 (.500) mark against winning teams while the Fever are 9-11 (.450). The Liberty also have the tiebreaker over Las Vegas thanks to a 2-1 edge in the series (3-1 including Cathy’s Cup, which I think offsets Becky Hammon resting her stars in the regular-season rubber match) and a 1-0 lead in the series with Atlanta, who they host in their final two regular-season games. Catching two out of the three of Atlanta, Indiana and Las Vegas to get a top-four seed isn’t going to be easy, especially given that Las Vegas has only non-playoff teams left on the schedule and would have to lose twice. The Liberty also have the prospect of a game at Minnesota after the World Cup, but Indiana has a pair of matchups against Minnesota to close its season and Atlanta hosts the Lynx on Sunday. If the Liberty can maintain their position relative to the Fever and Dream heading into their last two games, a sweep against Atlanta and a split for the Fever and Lynx would be enough for the Liberty to claim a top-four seed. Maintaining that position most likely requires at least one win between tonight’s game and the one in Minneapolis. Thanks to Saturday’s win, there remains a significant opportunity in front of the Liberty, and there’s no reason they shouldn’t be at their best tonight after four days of rest and full-strength practice coming off of one of their best performances of the season.
Should the Liberty lose tonight, they would finish the night as the No. 8 seed in the playoffs assuming there’s no upset when the Washington Mystics (23-15) visit the Phoenix Mercury (13-25) (10:00 ET, Prime Video). There’s no reason to think that upset is in the offing, given the Mystics won by 10 points at Phoenix on Tuesday and playoff teams have won 54 of 60 (.900) against non-playoff teams since July 13, but an upset is all that would prevent New York from slipping with a loss, as a Mystics win would then put Washington a game up on New York, which would be tied with the Dallas Wings (23-16), who won the season series. Sonia Citron led the way with 19 points on Tuesday while Washington hit 51.5% from the field and improved to 18-8 (.692) since a 5-7 (.417) start to the season. As a Liberty fan, I sure wouldn’t object to the Mystics showing their youth and letting one slip away tonight!