WNBA Roundup, July 1: Time for a Tier List

Hello, hoopheads! The WNBA’s ringing in July with its second leaguewide day off in a three-day span, but the grind begins again tomorrow on the first of 19 straight gamedays and 20 in 21 days heading into the All-Star break. Everyone but the Las Vegas Aces and my beloved New York Liberty is enjoying at least their third straight day off today after the Libs held off the Aces last night to become the WNBA’s first two-time Commissioner’s Cup champion and the first team to win Cathy’s Cup at home — where I am proud to say she was booed loudly and longly as deserved. With no games to preview and most teams getting something of a soft reset, it’s a great time for my first and perhaps only tier list of the season, although the FIBA break in September seems like it’ll probably be a good time for another. These tiers aren’t meant to be strictly ordered, although they do largely reflect the standings and my assessment of teams’ postseason hopes. But mostly, they’re just the groups that my brain has the teams sorted into at the moment. Teams are ordered alphabetically within specific tiers, and I’ll briefly introduce each multi-team tier, although I think the names largely speak for themselves.

There is no doubt that the Lynx have been the league’s best team so far, boasting the best record, net rating and defensive rating according to Her Hoop Stats while sitting second in offensive rating. Perhaps more accurately and almost certainly more importantly, they’ve been the league’s most consistent team, largely avoiding the bad nights that have struck everyone else. Minnesota also stands to get both Napheesa Collier, the MVPhee runner-up the last two seasons, and Dorka Juhász, who was recently named the youngest MVP in EuroLeague history, back on the floor at some point, and they have the potential to be the two most impactful additions the rest of the way no matter what anyone else does. The only real concern here is peaking too soon. It’s also one that undoubtedly feels like a bigger concern with this team than it would any other, fair or (probably) not, because of what happened last season. For those who may have forgotten, the 2025 Lynx started 28-5, but lost as many games during the season’s fourth quarter (6-5) as they had previously, and eventually lost to the Phoenix Mercury in the semifinals. I don’t know how a team avoids peaking too soon, but it’s the only reason I can see that this team wouldn’t be there at the end again.

The Aces don’t seem to be talked about as a championship favorite the way you’d expect of a team that won its third title in four years last season and has the best player in league history in her prime alongside two other future Hall of Famers. The 2025 Aces looked like anything but a title contender at this point on their well-documented path to the title, but the 2026 edition looks the part more often than not. There have been a handful of nights when they don’t seem interested in playing defense — the ghosts of 2025’s first two-thirds proving harder to shake than they’d probably hoped — but Las Vegas is 13-0 when holding opponents to an offensive rating under 110 points per 100 possessions according to Her Hoop Stats. That’s harder to do this season than ever before, given the leaguewide offensive explosion, but 110 is still a pretty high bar for opponents to have to clear to have a chance. I’m going to struggle to pick any team to beat the Aces in a series as long as they’re healthy, and you probably should too.

At their best, the next two teams have looked like every bit the top-tier title contenders that the Aces and Lynx have. They’ve been a bit inconsistent, however, and continue to try to find the right alchemy despite having rosters that undoubtedly have the talent to compete for a title.

The Dream were my picks to win the WNBA title entering the season, and I still think that when they play to their potential they have the ability to be the league’s most balanced team. They looked to be rounding into that kind of buzzsaw during a recent four-game win streak which started with a league-record-tying three straight 100-point outings, but the Dream have had four straight offensive ratings under 105 points per 100 possessions since then and lost their last three games. I think 105 is the new 100 as far as a threshold for a good offensive performance in 2026 — teams with a rating of 105+ are 100-35 (.741) while teams with a rating below 105 are 43-109 (.283) — and by that standard, the Dream have been subpar more often (11 times) than they haven’t (eight). If the Dream find offensive consistency, they can beat anyone, but a three-game stretch like they just had in Golden State and Seattle would almost undoubtedly end their season once the fall comes.

Much of what I said about Atlanta also applies to my Libs, although they have also had to deal with more than their fair share of injuries/absences along the way and are under the guidance of a new head coach. It’s been ugly at times, including during a 1-4 stretch heading into last night’s win over the Aces, but the Liberty are 12-2 when they get to 100 points per 100 possessions according to Her Hoop Stats, with both losses coming on West Coast buzzer-beaters. The 12 wins in that record include all three of their meetings so far with either the Aces (2-0 including last night, when I believe HHS would’ve had them at 113.4 points per 100 possessions if the game counted) or Dream (1-0). The Liberty will meet Minnesota for the first time on Friday, but much like Atlanta, I believe they can beat anyone if they can find consistency on offense, and I’m inclined to put more stock in beating the best teams consistently than occasionally losing to the worst.

Each of the teams here plays at a high level at one end of the floor and, in my estimation, has the ability to cause major problems for some of the teams I’ve already talked about in a playoff series. I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see either of them upset a top seed in the right first-round matchup, but they’ve got enough work to do on their weaker end of the floor that I don’t think it’s realistic to believe they could pick off three in a row to win a title.

The league’s most-improved team looks like a surefire playoff team following consecutive seasons picking No. 1 overall in the draft, and it’s perhaps the most entertaining team to watch play offense thanks to the presence of those No. 1 picks (Paige Bueckers and Azzi Fudd), home-run free-agent signing Jessica Shepard and others. It doesn’t look like there’s much of a difference in their offensive rating (6th, 105.9 points per 100 possessions) and defensive rating (8th, 104.2) at HHS, but there’s no question which end of the floor is their strong suit and which is their weakness. To watch a Wings game is to know that this is a team that can score with anyone, but struggles to make stops when it needs to. They’ve taken two of three from the Aces and won their only game against the Liberty, but are 0-3 against Minnesota and 0-1 against Golden State, speaking of whom…

The Valkyries are sitting in third place after winning three straight at Ballhalla against the Dream (twice) and Liberty, and they’re 4-0 against those teams this season as well as 13-2 against teams other than Las Vegas and Minnesota. They’re also 0-5 against the Aces and Lynx. As much as I enjoy this team and as glowingly as I speak of it — particularly Veronica Valkyrie (Burton), who I believe is the WNBA’s best pure point guard not named Olivia Miles and its outright best manipulator of a game’s tempo — it’s just hard to see Golden State going all the way unless it starts making some shots. Specifically, making its damn layups, as Golden State is dead last in field goal percentage (41.1%) and 2-point percentage (46.1%) while sitting 14th in field goal percentage in the restricted area (58.3%), 12th within five feet (57.4%) and 13th from five-to-10 feet (35.1%). It’s been over a decade since a WNBA team won a title shooting this poorly inside the arc (or from the field overall) and it has only happened in a very different era in the league. That said, if the Libs see this team in the playoffs…that’s probably a wrap for the seafoam squad. It’s a nightmare matchup.

Setting aside the constant maelstrom of controversy surrounding this team, both manufactured and legitimate, and also the fact that it is the very definition of overexposed thanks to the league’s decision to put all of its games on national TV, Indiana is on fraud watch entirely because it hasn’t proven anything on the court. The offense has been close to expectations, sitting fourth at HHS with a mark of 107.7 points per 100 possessions while putting up only three ratings below 100 so far and hitting the 105 threshold in 11 of 19 games. The defense remains mediocre, however, and that might be putting it kindly as Indiana sits 10th of 15 teams with a mark of 104.4 points allowed per 100 possessions. More importantly, Indiana just isn’t beating good teams. The Fever are 2-5 against the six teams either tied with or ahead of them in the standings (also the six teams above them on this list) while they’re 9-3 against the teams behind them. Both wins against the teams ahead of them (one each against Golden State and Atlanta) also came at home, but they’re 0-2 against those two teams on the road and dropped a home game to Atlanta as well. Until Indiana proves it can hang with the teams it will actually have to beat — and beat on the road — to win a title, it remains on fraud watch.

I think ball-knowers can all pretty much agree that the seven teams above are extremely likely to make the playoffs as the top seven seeds in some order. That leaves one spot for everyone else, and for my money, these two teams are likely to be the ones chasing it down to the regular season’s bitter end. It would only be fitting, given they played on opening night.

The Tempo are .500 since falling to Washington in that opening-night rock fight, but they’ve proven to be among the league’s most potent offensive teams when healthy. Health has been an issue lately, with Brittney Sykes sidelined by a foot injury while Marina Mabrey missed her encore to a WNBA-record-tying 53-point outing due to a neck spasm and Toronto ultimately lost its Pride game without her. As long as the league’s first million-dollar backcourt can remain intact through September, however, Toronto’s presence in the playoff chase should make for some very entertaining basketball. Just don’t count on the Tempo making many stops.

The beauty of the Mystics is that, as one of the league’s youngest-ever teams, they are both wildly inconsistent and remarkably predictable. Of course they were going to follow up a listless loss to the Liberty by picking them off in Brooklyn five nights later to snap New York’s eight-game win streak, then follow that up with a win at Minnesota on its Pride night, and then go toe-to-toe with the Lynx for 40 more minutes three days later before letting a late lead slip away at home. And then of course they were going to follow those excellent performances up with one of the most dispirited outings I’ve seen from any team this season in a loss at Connecticut, followed by another three-quarter sleepwalk against the visiting Portland Fire before rallying in the fourth quarter and eventually escaping with a (frankly undeserved) win in quadruple-overtime. This was all obvious, why didn’t you see it coming, too? 

Of the five teams I am confident will not make the playoffs, these three stand out as making the best of 2026 nonetheless. Better than being the last two!

I still think the Sky made a monumental error in letting their relationship with Angel Reese deteriorate to the extent that she ended up traded to the Dream, but the emergence of rookie guard Sydney Taylor has given the team a real spark of late. If she has staying power, it’s a real shot in the arm to a youth movement that has already found potential long-term pieces in Kamilla Cardoso, Gabriela Jaquez and the injured Rickea Jackson — whose acquisition in a one-for-one trade for Ariel Atkins was one of the offseason’s best moves, despite her injury. It’d all look better with Reese still in the fold, and I doubt the Dream’s first-round picks the next two years (received in exchange for Reese) will provide much value, but the Sky still deserve credit for making the best of the hand they dealt themselves.

The Fire went down a different path than recent kinfolk brethren Golden State and Toronto, skewing towards young players with the potential to become long-term contributors instead of building around veterans who might deliver playoff appearances in the short-term, but likely won’t be around as long. By that token, it’s no surprise that Portland is not as good as those teams on the court — despite its record being fairly similar to Toronto’s, metrics show it’s quite a bit worse, and Portland is 3-9 since a 5-3 start. I think it’s done a fine job, however, of identifying some future contributors. You didn’t get here without knowing I love Sarah Ashlee Barker, Carla Leite is going to be a very good player in this league for as long as she chooses to cross the pond to play here, Emily Engstler is an exceptional individual defender on a VERY bad defensive team, and Bridget Carleton has performed well in her first go-round as a featured player, even if I still think she’s best cast as a secondary offensive option. There are other promising players here, but those four feel like a great start.

Yes, the team that just had a franchise-record 11-game losing streak is in the silver linings group, and no, it’s not because my Libs just did them a solid by resting Stewie against her former team and allowed them to snap that streak. It’s because the young core of Awa Fam, Dominique Malonga and Flau’jae Johnson is starting to develop some real chemistry, and if they continue on this trajectory, I think Seattle’s gonna be good sooner than people expect. Not this season, but next season doesn’t seem out of the question?

Just…just a really big fucking yikes.

There are only 25 games left before the Sun become the Houston Fauxmets, and as I said the other day, I think former Comet and current Sun assistant Roneeka Hodges — who led them past the seemingly comatose Mystics in Rachid Meziane’s stead — should coach those 25 games. Failing that, I hope the Sun lose them all. 

The Sparks probably would’ve landed alongside Washington and Toronto in the battle for the last playoff spot if not for the fact that they’re still in the early part of an extended window during which they won’t have Kelsey Plum. Los Angeles has struggled throughout the season, but it’s been downright awful without its Spark plug, and it’s just hard to imagine that the Sparks will still be in the playoff picture by the time she returns late this month (at the earliest). On top of that, Los Angeles spent its offseason making moves intended to fix the defense…which has thus far been a good bit worse than last year, even accounting for the offensive explosion. LA probably won’t finish with quite as bad a record as Connecticut or Phoenix, but a sixth straight missed postseason would be a massive yikes for one of the league’s iconic franchises.

Given the week that the Mercury — and superstar Alyssa Thomas in particular — have had, I don’t feel compelled to kick them while they’re down. It’s no secret that I expected them to be bad when most others didn’t, and I take no real joy in being right about that. With one of the team’s few real bright spots Natasha Mack sidelined by a bone bruise and early-season star Jovana Nogic not returning after missing the last few games for reasons that remain nebulous, things are probably going to get worse before they get better.