Hello, hoopheads! Friday’s tripleheader opened with the Golden State Valkyries (17-7) and Dallas Wings (15-8) pulling away for fairly easy road wins over the Connecticut Sun (5-18) and Toronto Tempo (9-13), albeit with the latter coming in front of a WNBA regular-season record crowd of over 20,000 fans in Montreal. Those essentially simultaneous results dropped home teams to 82-83 and then 82-84 this season, and also marked the literal end of the season’s first half and beginning of its second half, as they were games 165 and 166 of 330 on the schedule. The night ended with the Los Angeles Sparks (10-11) holding the Chicago Sky (7-15) at arm’s length pretty much the whole way behind 25 points, 12 rebounds and 5 assists from “Madam President” Nneka Ogwumike (in front of the former Madam Vice President Kamala Harris) while the rest of the Sparks starters all scored at least 15 points. That included a season-high 17 points from Ariel Atkins against the team that traded her away last offseason to go with a game-best +24 plus/minus rating in 29 minutes. The win was LA’s second in a row after losing three straight in pretty ugly fashion, pulling the Sparks within a half-game of the Washington Mystics (10-10) for the final playoff spot if the season ended today.
If the oddsmakers have identified the correct favorites (as they generally do), home teams’ fortunes are about to change in a hurry. All three of today’s hosts are favored by at least 5.5 points, at least three of tomorrow’s four home teams will be favored, and both home teams will be favored on Monday as well. Today’s slimmest underdog happens to be the team that might be a road favorite tomorrow when it visits Toronto in Montreal, although that should also tell you that this is the front end of a back-to-back for my beloved-but-beset-by-injuries New York Liberty (13-9) at the Minnesota Lynx (16-6) (1:00 ET, ABC). The Liberty will again be without Leonie Fiebich (foot soreness) and Satou Sabally (concussion protocol) while perfect angel who has never done anything wrong rookie point guard Pauline Astier (ankle) and Rebecca Allen (nose) are both questionable. The injury report has slightly better news for Minnesota, despite Napheesa Collier’s return remaining in the future. The good news for the Lynx is that Phee’s the only player on their injury report aside from Emma Cechova, who’s out for the season with a torn ACL, which means that Lynx rookie point guard rookie sensation Rookie of the Year Olivia Miles is good to go after missing the last two games and most of the fourth quarter of Minnesota’s 13-point loss last Friday in Brooklyn due to a calf injury. The Liberty got 36 points from Breanna Stewart, who has the last three 35-point games against the Lynx spanning about the last three years, in that win, but they might need 50 from Stewie today since they won’t have Fiebich playing 36 minutes of her world-class defense this time around.
Minnesota split a pair of games against the Sun after losing in Brooklyn, first dropping a home game by a one-point margin on Monday night (a game they almost stole after trailing for the vast majority) and then getting revenge in the basement of Mohegan Sun on Wednesday night. That win gave Cheryl Reeve the all-time regular-season wins record on her third attempt, now with 380 and counting, and was also probably one of the last times that anyone will get revenge in the basement of Mohegan Sun without a crime being committed. The Lynx improved to 13-0 this season when holding their opponents to an offensive rating under 100 points per 100 possessions according to Her Hoop Stats in Wednesday’s win, but they’re 3-6 when opponents have a triple-digit rating, including last Friday’s loss in Brooklyn. Their 13 games with a defensive rating under 100 are one ahead of the Valkyries for most in the league thus far, but the Lynx’s 59.1% rate of games with a double-digit defensive rating is easily the league’s best. Golden State is one of three teams tied for the second-highest rate, with that trio sitting on 50% of games (also Atlanta and Washington). Seven of 13 teams held opponents under 100 points per 100 possessions at least half of the time during the 2025 regular season and at least half of the league did it every year from 2021 through 2024. The flip side of 105 points being the new 100 is that it’s really good to be the team that holds people under 100 more often than everyone else.
The Liberty have only played once since backing up their Commissioner’s Cup win over the Las Vegas Aces with last Friday’s win against the Lynx, but Tuesday’s home loss to the Wings was ugly enough and the injury report last night depressing enough that those excellent showings feel like a distant memory. The Libs managed a meager 93.9 points per 100 possessions in that 88-77 loss on Tuesday, falling to 1-7 when they’re held to an offensive rating under 100 (2-7 when they’re held under 105, with the only game between the old 100 and new 100 being a win). They’re 14-2 including the Commissioner’s Cup when they have a triple-digit rating. Those losses with triple-digit ratings were both frustrating and memorable, last-second defeats on the West Coast when their defense didn’t show up (allowing ratings of 121 and 116.7 points per 100 possessions). Still, the Liberty’s story has been pretty close to as simple as “when the offense works, we win, and when it doesn’t, we lose.” Results haven’t been quite as strongly correlated on defense, as they’re 5-7 when opponents have triple-digit offensive ratings and 9-2 when they don’t, including a win when getting torched for a rating of 115.9. Stewart scored 29 points on 10-for-16 from the field and 9-for-11 at the line on Tuesday and has 65 points 14-for-35 from the field over her last two games. Unfortunately, the rest of the team made less than a third of its shots (31.5%, to be exact) against the Wings and the Liberty made just 40% from the field, their third-lowest mark this season. Field goal percentage has been an easier indicator to track during a game, if not quite as reliable as offensive rating, as the Liberty are 11-2 when they make at least 46% (including the Commissioner’s Cup) as opposed to 3-7 when they don’t.
Today’s second home favorite hasn’t been particularly reliable of late, but will look to start a new win streak when the Portland Fire (9-13) visit the Atlanta Dream (13-9) (4:00 ET, CBS/Paramount+). Both teams will have fairly quick turnarounds from Thursday night games, although that is certainly a tougher deal for Portland than Atlanta, given both teams played at home. The Dream snapped a five-game losing streak, the longest of Karl Smesko’s head coaching career, in an 11-point win over the Seattle Storm. They have, however, fallen to ninth in offensive rating at Her Hoop Stats (103.9 points per 100 possessions) while finishing their last seven games with a rating under 105. Portland is coming off of an eight-point loss to the Aces, its ninth loss in 12 games since a 6-4 start, and sits 13th in defensive rating (109.2 opponent points per 100 possessions). One would certainly hope that Atlanta’s offense could take advantage of the Fire’s ineptitude on defense and start building some momentum, but there is the notable caveat that the Dream might not have either Angel Reese (questionable, left leg) or Brionna Jones (doubtful, right knee). On the other hand, the Dream could plausibly have both, and Jones’ return appears to be imminent as she had been ruled out in advance of every other game thus far.
Today’s last home favorite could also be as healthy as it’s been all season when the Phoenix Mercury (8-15) visit the Las Vegas Aces (16-6) (6:00 ET, Peacock/NBCSN/local affiliates). The reigning WNBA champs and 2026 Commissioner’s Cup runners-up should have former Fever developmental player Justine Pissott available for the first time, as she’s not listed on the injury report and the team posted pictures of her practicing yesterday on social media, while newly-signed developmental player Ta’Niya Latson has also reported. Meanwhile, Dana Evans is listed as questionable with the left leg injury that’s kept her out since the preseason, and an Evans debut would leave Janiah Barker (who also hasn’t played yet) as the only missing Ace. The most important thing for Las Vegas is that A’ja Wilson returned from a three-game absence (including the Commissioner’s Cup) in the Aces’ win at Portland on Thursday, racking up 32 points, 10 rebounds, 2 steals and 2 blocks. I’ll spare you all the 30/10/2/2 nuggets that I already shared yesterday, instead going with the angle that the 30-burger was the 54th of Wilson’s career, which moved her within eight of Diana Taurasi’s WNBA record of 62 career 30-point games (Wilson’s played 297 fewer games, with all of this including playoffs). It was Wilson’s seventh 30-point game this season, a 35% rate of 30-point outings which would be the second-highest in a WNBA season all-time. That rate trails only Tina Charles’ 37.0% (10 in 27 games) in 2021, while Wilson’s 34.6% rate of 30-burgers last season (WNBA-record 18 of them in 52 games) and Maya Moore’s 33.3% in 2014 (13 of 39, the previous record for 30-point games in a season) mark the only other times a player has scored 30+ in at least a third of their games (min. 10 games played during the season). The Mercury let a double-digit lead slip away down the stretch at home on Thursday against the Indiana Fever in a game that feels like it will loom large should Phoenix manage to get back into the playoff race. It’s 3.5 games behind Washington and the No. 8 spot as of now, but would’ve been within 3.5 games of the Fever with that win and, crucially, would’ve clinched a tiebreaker that now belongs to Indiana, which won the season series 2-1. It’s getting late early for the Mercury, who head to Minnesota next and could well be nine games under .500 with 19 to play.