Hello, hoopheads! I promise to try not to ramble for too long today, since I’m sure most of you have hot dogs to consume. I remain committed to my mission of previewing all 330 WNBA regular-season games, however, so I’m gonna tell you about the pair on the docket today come hell or high water. To be honest, it’s so fucking hot in the Big Apple that high water sounds like a decent alternative. Not even the league-leading Minnesota Lynx (15-5) defense could cool off my beloved New York Liberty (13-8) last night, as they hit 58.1% from the field (36-for-62) during a 99-86 win that never quite turned into a rout, but wasn’t all that close either. The Liberty led by at least eight points for the entire second half and at least a dozen points for the final 8:10 while handing Minnesota just its third loss in its last 16 games. Breanna Stewart racked up 36 points on 14-for-19 (73.7%) from the field, including 2-for-4 (!!) from deep, and was the first player to score 35+ points against the Lynx since…Breanna Stewart, actually, in a loss in September 2024. Stewie was also the player to hang 35 on the Lynx before that, in August 2023, all of which makes it feel like her absence from all four meetings in 2025 was perhaps a big deal (duh). Also a big deal to me, personally, is the fact that Basketball Hall of Famer Yao Ming was in attendance at last night’s game and there’s video of Liberty center Han Xu meeting him very excitedly. As a result of the Lynx’s loss and the Las Vegas Aces (15-5) pulling out an overtime win over the Chicago Sky (6-14), the reigning champs from Sin City would be the No. 1 seed in the playoffs if they started today, claiming a tiebreaker via their win in the lone head-to-head meeting with Minnesota. There’s a long way to go, of course, but my Libs will also reach their halfway point with their 22nd game on Tuesday, so…I don’t think it’s early anymore, Toto.
This afternoon’s first game, and the better game on today’s slate by a longshot, sees the Golden State Valkyries (13-7) visit the Atlanta Dream (12-8) (1:00 ET, CBS/Paramount+) for the third meeting between the teams in 11 days. Golden State won the first two, first by a 77-66 margin last Wednesday that was about as one-sided as the Liberty’s 13-point win last night, then in a much tighter 78-75 game last Friday. While one might look at those scores and think “Atlanta’s offense did better the second time” explains the difference, that’s really not the case at all. Atlanta’s offense was miserable in both games, putting up an offensive rating of 88.0 points per 100 possessions in the first and 87.2 points per 100 possessions in the second according to Her Hoop Stats. I’m not going to pretend the second one is meaningfully worse, but they’re both accurately described as extremely bad. For comparison’s sake, the Lynx had an offensive rating over 106 last night in a one-sided loss, while the Liberty’s rating was in the 120s.
With the Atlanta offense staying stagnant, there were two key differences in other places that led to a closer and higher-scoring second Dream-Valkyries game. First, Golden State’s offense performed significantly worse (a rating of 91.8, down from 101.3), which led to the tighter margin. Second, the teams played at a significantly higher pace, up from approximately a 75.5 possession-per-team pace in the first game to 85.5 in the second. Ten extra possessions per team is more than enough to jack up the score, even in a rock fight. I don’t use that term pejoratively, as Golden State is second and Atlanta is fourth in defensive rating at HHS. The teams are also last (Golden State) and fourth-to-last (Atlanta) in field goal percentage, all of which does lead to a lot of missed shots when they play.
Atlanta has lost two more games in a row since losing the pair at Ballhalla, but all four of those losses came on the road while today marks the opening of a four-game homestand. Still, it’s hard not to think of the Dream offense as fairly up-and-down at this point, given it struggled for the first seven games, then was mostly hot for the following nine, but has gone ice cold over the last four. Atlanta hasn’t had an offensive rating higher than 102.3 points per 100 possessions in those four games, with three of them in the 80s including a mark of 87.4 in a loss at Washington on Thursday. As I keep saying, 105 points per 100 possessions is the new 100, and Atlanta has been under that mark in 60% of its games. The Dream are 7-1 when getting to 105, though, so if they ever do find offensive consistency, they’re going to be very tough to beat.
Golden State finished off the three-game homestand that started with the wins over Atlanta with a nine-point win against the Liberty on Sunday, improving to 2-0 in that season series and moving into third place in the standings. I was, of course, the idiot who opened my stupid mouth about the fact that the Valkyries would be the worst 2-point field-goal shooting team to win a WNBA title in 14 years heading into that game, so Golden State of course went and hit 56.8% inside the arc. It is still, however, 15th (aka last) in the WNBA making 46.1% inside the arc, and that would still be the worst mark by any WNBA champion since 2012. And like the last time I mentioned this, my toxic trait remains that I continue to expect this team to start consistently making its damn layups any day now. It hasn’t happened yet, though, as the Valkyries are 14th in field goal percentage in the restricted area (58.3%).
Tonight’s second matchup sees the Portland Fire (8-12) visit the Seattle Storm (5-16) (9:00 ET, local affiliates/League Pass), and I’m honestly tempted to just yell FIRE-STORM!!! and say Happy 4th of July. I will, however, show the Fire a bit more respect than that, because they gave everything they had and more in a losing effort while falling to the Mystics 124-123 in quadruple-overtime on Sunday. Carla Leite probably earned herself a lot of new fans during a 32-point, 9-assist effort that saw her almost singlehandedly keep the Fire alive in the extra half of basketball, while Post Presence favorite Sarah Ashlee Barker added 25 points on a 10-for-16 from the field, Megan Gustafson scored 20 on 7-for-14 and Bridget Carleton added 16 points. All four of those players played at least 45 minutes, led by Carleton’s 50:39, which is a pretty funny thing to say about players in a league with 40-minute games. That was, however, Portland’s third straight loss, while Seattle is coming off of a 23-point loss at Phoenix on Thursday night after winning the previous two games. Wouldn’t it be cool, however, if Storm center Dominique Malonga gave the U.S. a 250th birthday present in the form of her first dunk in a WNBA game? She might well be in a particularly good mood if her native France does what it’s supposed to against Paraguay in the World Cup Round of 16 a couple hours prior!