Hello, hoopheads! It’s been a rough last three days for hosts and home teams, whether I was watching the men’s World Cup, in which all three host nations were eliminated since Saturday (although Canada lost in Houston), or the WNBA, in which home teams went 0-7 over those same three days. The most embarrassing of those losses across the competitions was definitely the one suffered by the U.S. men’s soccer team last night, if only because of that horrendous goal that you’ve probably seen by now. The most surprising loss was going on simultaneously on the hardwood, as the WNBA-leading Minnesota Lynx (15-6) fell against the detestable and cellar-dwelling Connecticut Sun (5-16), who led for the vast majority of the game and the entire fourth quarter. The Lynx were notably without rookie sensation Olivia Miles, who left early in the fourth quarter of their loss to my beloved New York Liberty on Friday with a calf injury, but their offense operated up to its usual standards without her, posting a mark of 106 points per 100 possessions according to Her Hoop Stats. The Sun, however, had an offensive rating of 107.1, and Minnesota fell to 3-6 when allowing opponents to put up triple-digit offensive ratings, including losses the last two games. The Lynx are 12-0 when opponents don’t get to 100, but it’s a bit surprising the bar where they start losing consistently to be a bit higher given their quality at both ends of the floor (2nd in offensive rating and 1st in defensive rating).
There are a pair of games in the WNBA tonight, and for the first time in a bit they won’t have to share the stage with World Cup games, as today’s men’s footie action is confined to the afternoon stateside. I can’t actually figure out if I want the home team struggles to continue or not in tonight’s headliner and opener, which sees the Dallas Wings (13-8) visit the New York Liberty (13-8) (8:00 ET) (ESPN), which will see even more of a UConn presence than the average visit from Paige Bueckers and Azzi Fudd. That’s because Huskies coach Geno Auriemma will be on the call alongside Robin Roberts, with whom he called ESPN’s first WNBA broadcast during the inaugural season, and Beth Mowins. My jokes about the home struggles aside — let me be very clear to the basketball gods that I want the home team to win — the last visit from the Wings on May 24 really did end up feeling like a road game by the time it was said and done. That was in large part because the Wings kicked the Liberty’s ass that Sunday afternoon, eventually winning 91-76 behind 24 points each from Bueckers and Fudd, a breakout game for the latter after a slowish start. Fudd’s averaging 14.9 points per game over her last 15 games, starting with her first visit to Brooklyn, compared to 8.4 ppg over the first five games of her career up to that point.
Dallas is looking to improve to 3-0 on a four-game road trip which concludes on Friday in Toronto, where it won by 13 points on Sunday. The trip started in shakier fashion, with the Wings trailing the lowly Sun by seven points through three quarters and in danger of a third straight loss before escaping Hartford (which really did look and sound like a Wings home game) with a three-point win. The Wings have largely embodied my ethos that 105 points per 100 possessions is the new 100, amassing a 10-1 record when putting up a rating higher than that threshold. The only loss was against the Lynx and in the game among those 11 in which Dallas cleared the bar by the slimmest margin with a rating of 106.2 points per 100 possessions. The Wings are 3-7, on the other hand, when they’re held below 105 points per 100 possessions. Making nine shots from deep has also been a very strong barometer of success, as the Wings are 11-1 when getting to that mark compared to 2-7 when making eight triples or fewer. They cleared that bar with plenty of room to spare while going 15-for-35 (42.9%) against the Liberty in May.
I was about to say that it was worth noting how shorthanded the Liberty were the first time they played the Wings a couple of paragraphs ago, but the truth is they could be in worse shape tonight. That game was notably Sabrina Ionescu’s first appearance of the season, and she looked decent although certainly not 100% before missing several more games due to back soreness, only seeming to get up to full speed in the last couple of games. On the other hand, Satou Sabally was the Liberty’s high scorer with 20 points in the first meeting, but she won’t play tonight as she recovers from a concussion. Leonie Fiebich, who didn’t make her debut until a couple days after the previous meeting, is questionable tonight due to foot soreness. Two other players who missed the first game, Rebecca Allen and Betnijah Laney-Hamilton, haven’t seen the floor since the Liberty’s loss at Golden State last Sunday, so I’m not sure how meaningful their availability is relative to the first game.
The good news is that the Liberty have finally just had their first three-day break in over a month and they’ve got three days off after this before games in Minnesota and Toronto on Saturday and Sunday. That said, I’m not sure coach Chris DeMarco is going to be able to hide from the fans who chanted “we want Laney” on Friday night if Fiebich is sidelined. As both a Liberty and Laney-Hamilton fan, I sincerely hope that it goes better for all involved than the last few times she saw the floor. As someone who tries to be as objective as possible about the Liberty, however, I feel compelled to mention that Laney-Hamilton scored 3 points on 1-for-8 from the field with 8 rebounds, 2 assists, 6 turnovers and a -26 +/- rating over 51 minutes played during her last three appearances.
A Liberty player who hasn’t been unplayable lately, on the other hand, is All-Star starter Breanna Stewart, who is coming off of a 36-point showing in Friday’s win over Minnesota. Stewie’s third 30-point game this season tied her for the second-most 30-pieces in the WNBA, trailing only the GOAT A’ja Wilson (who has twice as many lol) while Kahleah Copper, Marina Mabrey and Brittney Sykes also have three each. Friday was the 41st time that Stewart has scored 30+ points in her career, including playoffs, which trails only Diana Taurasi (62) and Wilson (53) in WNBA history. Stewart (358 games played) and Wilson (341) have played 60 more games than Taurasi (639) combined, for what it’s worth, while Angel McCoughtry (38 in 352 games) is the only other player to score 30+ points at least 30 times. That should stay true for a while, as Jewell Loyd has the next-most 30-burgers among active players with 25 of them. While 30 is nice, 19 has been enough for the Libs. Including the Liberty’s win in the Commissioner’s Cup, they’re 10-1 this season when Stewart scores at least 19 points, but 4-7 when she doesn’t, including a loss in Seattle when she got a night off.
Tonight’s second game sees the Chicago Sky (6-14) visit the Phoenix Mercury (8-13) (10:00 ET, local affiliates/League Pass), who are looking for their fourth straight win and fifth in their last six games. The Mercury’s win streak coincides with the absence of center Natasha Mack, who will be out again tonight, and also with the team’s best stretch of offense this season — with ratings of 126.1, 108.5 and 113.9 which rank first, third and sixth among the Mercury’s ratings thus far. Keeping the offense hot could go a long way towards making the Mercury’s hopes of getting back into the playoff race come true, as they’re 6-2 when they get to at least 107 points per 100 possessions but 2-13 when they don’t. Chicago has been playing largely entertaining games since rookie guard Sydney Taylor broke out with 30 points in an overtime loss to the Indiana Fever and earned a spot in the starting lineup for the seven games since. The Sky are 2-6 in that span, but there is no doubt that the games have been more fun to watch and (for the most part) tightly contested in that span. They’ll be shaking things up a bit despite the increased fun factor of late, as Skylar Diggins alerted the world to her move to the bench in a fairly on-brand manner (with multiple Instagram posts). There’s not much I am certain of, but I know in my bones that Diggins was a wide receiver in another life (I say that with nothing but admiration and respect for both Diggins and wide receivers).