Hello, hoopheads! The 2026 edition of the WNBA Commissioner’s Cup tournament is officially underway after a pair of blowouts on Monday night, and boy was I ever right to wonder why the Lynx weren’t favored by more against the Mercury in yesterday’s Roundup. You can find notes on the first two Cup games here, but it’s a busy Tuesday in the W, as eight more teams take the first steps on their Cup journeys tonight. The two best games are out west, so that’s where we’re gonna start, beginning with the first meeting between this year’s West Coast expansion success story, the Portland Fire (6-4), and last year’s neophytes, the Golden State Valkyries (5-3) (10:00 ET, local affiliates/League Pass).
The Fire come in having won four out of their last five games after a 2-3 start, most recently routing the Indiana Fever on Friday night while scoring 100 points (on the nose) for the first time. Portland improved to 4-0 when it posts an offensive rating of at least 100 points per 100 possessions in that win, but it’s mostly been a struggle at the offensive end. Even the fact that Portland has only had a triple-digit offensive rating four times so far is indicative of that fact, as it’s tied for the second-fewest such games in the league despite the Fire being tied for the most games played. Only the Connecticut Sun (two games with an offensive rating of 100+) have had fewer triple-digit ratings, while the Fire are tied with the Chicago Sky and Seattle Storm for the next-fewest. This is all the more reason why I’m going to humbly suggest once again that the Fire should lean more on Sarah Ashlee Barker, who is the only Fire player with at least 25 attempts who’s making 50% or better from the field (51.2%). She’s also 13-for-27 from deep, with that 48.1% good for fourth in the WNBA among players with 20+ attempts (behind only Nneka Ogwumike, Jovana Nogić and Kelsey Plum).
The Fire only rank slightly higher on defense (11th in defensive rating) than on offense (12th), but their defensive rating (104.7 points allowed per 100 possessions) is still somewhat skewed towards a very rough first three games. Portland hasn’t allowed an opponent to post an offensive rating higher than 106.2 since giving up marks of 121, 120 and 119 out of the gates. That said, the biggest key to Portland’s strong start hasn’t been a particular strength at either end. Instead, and somewhat ironically, the key to Portland’s start has been its ability to finish. The Fire are the WNBA’s highest-scoring team in 4th quarters, averaging 25 points, and have the league’s second-best average margin in final frames at +4.9. Only the Atlanta Dream, who dominated the 4th quarter in the Fire’s most recent loss, have a better average margin (+7.8).
Golden State was denied a three-game win streak in its latest game, a 91-81 loss to the Las Vegas Aces that only ended so close thanks to a very late Valkyries run after the reigning champs had pulled away in the third quarter. That was the first time the Valkyries allowed an opponent to post an offensive rating of 110+ this season (Las Vegas finished at 112.3 points per 100 possessions), making them the second-to-last team in the WNBA to do so (the Lynx still haven’t). Golden State slipped to fourth in defensive rating after getting torched by the Aces, but the end of the floor that could use some improvement is the offensive one, where the Valkyries are dead last in both field goal percentage (40.2%) and 2-point percentage (41.8%) and 12th in free throw percentage (76.1%). It’s not all bad news, as they lead the league in 3-point percentage (38.0%), but only six teams in WNBA history have made the playoffs while hitting shots inside the arc at a rate as low as Golden State, and it hasn’t happened since 2013. There have been a few more (nine) with an overall field goal percentage as low as the Valkyries, but that still hasn’t happened since 2015. Suffice to say, the Valkyries are going to need to start making some shots inside the arc, particularly given that this season will see the lowest percentage of the league’s teams make the playoffs since 2002. Golden State’s offensive rating (which is 7th in the league) is buoyed by the fact that it has the league’s lowest turnover rate, but there’s a chance that the Valkyries will have to play their first game ever without point guard Veronica Valkyrie (Burton), who is questionable with a quad contusion. She’s started every game in franchise history and is second on the team averaging 14.8 points to go with 5.8 assists and just 1.6 turnovers per game.
Tonight’s other late game sees the Las Vegas Aces (5-3) visit the Los Angeles Sparks (4-4) (10:00 ET, local affiliates/League Pass) for the teams’ third meeting already this season. The Aces took the first one in dominant fashion in their second game (LA’s first), but Los Angeles won the more recent encounter. Each win took place on the other team’s home court, but unfortunately it’s very hard to see the Sparks knocking the champs off again given Kelsey Plum will miss a third straight game with an ankle injury suffered in practice last week. Las Vegas has its own injury concerns, with Chennedy Carter and Jewell Loyd both questionable due to left leg injuries, but the Sparks got a virtuoso performance from Plum (38 points, 9 assists, 12-17 FG) against her former team to carry them to their 101-95 win in Sin City (no other Spark scored more than 16 points). The Aces would certainly miss Carter’s 23 points on 8-for-13 from the field in the same game, but A’ja Wilson scored 24 and NaLyssa Smith scored 22 while Jackie Young, who was scoreless for a second straight game, has had 38 points in the two games since then. Las Vegas just has a lot more ability to withstand the absence of key players.
Tonight’s early games don’t look quite as appealing as the late ones, at least in part because injuries will keep some of the biggest stars on the sidelines when the Chicago Sky (3-5) visit the Washington Mystics (3-4) (7:30 ET, local affiliates/League Pass). Chicago will remain without DiJonai Carrington, rookie standout Gabriela Jaquez and Courtney Vandersloot (in addition to lost-for-the-season Rickea Jackson) while the Mystics won’t have Sonia Citron, who’s been ruled out with a sprained left foot. The Sky come in having lost four straight, starting the game after Jackson’s injury, while Washington has dropped three out of four. Both of those stretches followed 2-1 starts. The other early game’s drawback is that it involves the Connecticut Sun (2-8), who visit my picks to win the WNBA title, the Atlanta Dream (5-2) (7:30 ET, local affiliates/League Pass). Other than being a chance to watch the Dream, the best thing about this game is that the first quarter of Connecticut’s last WNBA season will be done when the final buzzer sounds.