Hello, hoopheads! I’ve got to hand it to Phoebe Bridgers, because I really didn’t think it was possible for the six-year wait for her third album to become more agonizing than it already was…until hearing eight new songs last night alongside 18,000ish of my closest friends in what may have been the largest gathering of people in New York City in the last 19 years not to feature a single visible iPhone. The surprise album release me and my friends tried to manifest wasn’t meant to be, but suffice to say it was worth missing out on a night of WNBA action to step into a portal to the Before Times for a couple hours. That said, I did make it home in time to catch the end of Olivia Miles’ rookie-record-setting night with 8 triples (one shy of the overall WNBA record) and a career-high 28 points in Minnesota’s thrilling 87-84 win over Golden State. The Commissioner’s Cup rolls on with three more games tonight, but East Coast fans will have to stay up late again to catch the two best of them.
The most compelling game on tonight’s schedule sees the Dallas Wings (6-3) visit the Los Angeles Sparks (4-5) (10:00 ET, ION/League Pass) in what should be a matchup of two of the WNBA’s most potent offenses. I say should because the Sparks offense definitely takes a hit without Kelsey Plum on the floor, but the team’s overnight status report has her listed as probable to make her return from an ankle injury suffered in practice last week. Los Angeles won its first game after Plum’s injury last Friday at Washington, but lost at Connecticut the following night and at home against the Las Vegas Aces on Tuesday to fall back below .500 for the season. The Sparks posted offensive ratings of 97.6 and 86.3 points per 100 possessions in those two losses, falling to 0-4 this season when they’re held to an offensive rating under 100 according to Her Hoop Stats. Those four games specifically represent the first two and last two of their season so far, but LA posted an offensive rating of at least 110 in all five games in between, going 4-1 in that span. It scored at a rate of at least 115 points per 100 possessions in each of its last four games with Plum on the floor, culminating in a 38-point, 9-assist masterpiece in a road win over the Aces (her former team) in her most recent outing. That made Plum just the fourth player in WNBA history to have at least that many points and assists in a game, joining Diana Taurasi (in a 3OT game), Jia Perkins (2OT) and Kristi Toliver, who was the last to do it before Plum, the only other player to do it in a regulation-length game and also did it as a member of the Sparks.
The bad news for Los Angeles is it really needs Plum to get back on the floor ASAP and the team to get back to reeling off 115-plus offensive ratings every night, because offseason efforts to improve their defense appear to have been for naught. Los Angeles is 15th out of 15 WNBA teams in defensive rating, allowing 110.6 points per 100 possessions according to Her Hoop Stats, while sitting in the bottom third of the league in opponent field goal percentage (47.4%, 13th), opponent 2-point percentage (56.6%, 14th), opponent effective field goal percentage (53.6%, 12th), defensive rebounding rate (69.8%, 14th) and block rate (6.9%, 15th). They don’t force missed shots, don’t get the rebound when opponents do miss, and also don’t block opponents’ shots. LA does have one clear defensive strength so far, holding opponents to 32.3% from deep (5th-best in the league), but you shouldn’t be surprised to learn that opponents attempt 3-pointers at the league’s 10th-highest rate against the Sparks (32.5% of scoring attempts). Why bother when the going is so easy inside the arc?
The Wings have been the WNBA’s most improved team by a pretty wide margin, on pace to win about 44% more of their games (6-3, .667) than they did last season (10-34, .227). No other team in the WNBA is currently on track to improve its win percentage by more than 150 points, to use the parlance of that particular statistic, with the Washington Mystics posting the next-largest gain while going from .364 to .500. Dallas has won three straight games, its longest win streak since late in the 2024 regular season, and is looking to win four in a row for the first time since a five-game run in July 2023 — the last time the Wings finished with a winning record and made the playoffs. They own the WNBA’s third-highest rated offense, scoring at a rate of 107.2 points per 100 possessions, and their defense is up to seventh at 101 opponent points per 100 possessions, although I’ll note that the defensive rating’s most recent input — Seattle’s 70.9 offensive rating on Monday — was a fairly extreme outlier and had a lot to do with the Storm’s offensive ineptitude. Dallas hadn’t held an opponent under 96.2 points per 100 possessions prior to that blowout of the punchless Storm and allowed six of its first eight opponents to post triple-digit offensive ratings while sitting below 10th in defensive rating for most of that span.
Questionable though the defense may be, the Dallas offense has been an absolute joy to watch this season, even when it was ruining my Sunday afternoon 12 days ago. Last year’s No. 1 overall draft pick, Paige Bueckers, leads the Wings with 18.2 points per game while adding 5.3 assists and hitting her typical efficient marks from the field (49.2%) and from deep (42.5%), but part of what’s made Dallas so much fun lately has been that it isn’t just The Paige Show. This year’s No. 1 pick, Azzi Fudd, has overcome any notion of a slow start to her WNBA career, averaging 12.1 points per game so far while hitting 57.1% from the field and 43.8% from deep, so pretty much exactly what the Wings drafted her to do. She’s also averaging 25.5 minutes per game despite coming off the bench prior to the last two games, more than any Wing except Bueckers, Arike Ogunbowale or former Minnesota Lynx forward Jessica Shepard, who has been one of the most impactful free-agent signings of the season’s first month. Shepard made much-deserved headlines with the league’s second-ever 20/20/10 game last week, but that shouldn’t overshadow the fact that she’s been excellent throughout the first nine games. That 20/20/10 game was her second triple-double of the season, with the rest of the league still searching for its first, and she’s on pace to join Candace Parker in 2015 as the only players to average 10/10/5 in a season.
The other West Coast game sees the Phoenix Mercury (3-8) visit the Portland Fire (6-5) (10:00 ET, ION/League Pass), and while the Mercury finally snapped their six-game losing streak on Wednesday night at Seattle, their latest status report doesn’t bring great news. Kahleah Copper is listed as doubtful for tonight’s game due to a left hip injury while Alyssa Thomas is questionable with a left calf issue. Throw in Sami Whitcomb, who hasn’t played this season as she recovers from left knee surgery, and arguably the Mercury’s three most important players are having some real issues with their lower left halves. The seeming inevitability of having to spend time without Copper and/or Thomas, and the lack of firepower beyond them, were what had me lower on Phoenix than most coming into the season, and the Mercury have been a good bit worse than I expected even with their stars on the floor. Portland has a clean status report as it tries to avoid losing consecutive games for the first time in its rekindled history, as well as a third loss in four games since a three-game win streak. The Fire are coming off of an 18-point loss at Golden State on Tuesday in their first Commissioner’s Cup game. The Valkyries posted an offensive rating of 126.7 points per 100 possessions, best for a Portland opponent so far, as the Fire fell to 1-5 when opponents have an offensive rating higher than 102.5 compared to 5-0 when holding opponents to that mark or lower.
First, but least, on tonight’s schedule is a showdown between the last-place Connecticut Sun (2-9) and the freefalling Chicago Sky (3-6) (7:30 ET, ION/League Pass), who haven’t won in five games since losing Rickea Jackson for the season. There’s a tiny sliver of good news on Chicago’s status report, as rookie standout Gabriela Jaquez is listed as questionable after missing the last three games with a left knee injury, but DiJonai Carrington and Courtney Vandersloot have already been ruled out of making their season debuts tonight. The lowly Sun have dropped four in a row on the road, all by double-digit margins, and followed up their home win over the Sparks last Saturday with a 16-point loss in Atlanta on Tuesday. I hope it was the start of a 34-game losing streak to end their time in Connecticut.