Hello hoopheads! With yesterday’s post-Memorial Day nap in the rearview, the WNBA is set to go more than a month before its next day off. That won’t come until June 29, when all but two teams will get at least a three-day break for the Commissioner’s Cup championship (the exceptions, of course, being the two teams who play for the Cup on June 30). The 33-day grind begins with five games tonight and includes 90 in total, 27.3% of the regular season, which will be 41.8% over by the next time the league takes a break. I’ll be pretty surprised if road teams still have a .645 winning percentage (31-17 so far) when that time comes, but then again we live in pretty surprising times.The best game on tonight’s schedule is not the one Bestie and I will be attending, and as someone who spent 15 years working in a TV studio and needs about 30 minutes to get home from Barclays Center on the subway, I really wish USA had a studio show before the Atlanta Dream’s (4-1) second visit to the Twin Cities this season to face the Minnesota Lynx (4-2) (9:00 ET, USA Network/local affiliates).
My picks to win the WNBA title, the Dream first displayed their unkillable nature when they stormed back from a 19-point deficit in the season opener at Minnesota and escaped with a 91-90 win after both Angel Reese and Allisha Gray blocked potential Lynx go-ahead shots in the final seconds. Comebacks have emerged as a trend since then, with their most recent escape coming in an 82-80 win over the Phoenix Mercury on Sunday in which Atlanta finished on a 16-5 run (which began as a 13-0 run to go from down nine to up four). Rhyne Howard led the way with 21 points in that game, her second straight 20-point outing since returning from a concussion, while Reese had her third double-double in five games with Atlanta.
The Dream still haven’t been near the offensive team they should be, however, ranking 11th in offensive rating (101 points per 100 possessions), 12th in 3-point percentage (30.2%), a surprisingly low 8th in 3-point rate (31.8% of scoring attempts) and 12th in field goal percentage in the restricted area (59.2%). And still the Dream are 4-1, leading the league in defensive rating (94.1 points allowed per 100 possessions), total rebounding rate (56.7%) and offensive rebounding rate (32.6%) while ranking second in defensive rebounding rate (79.4%) — without one of the league’s best post defenders and rebounders Brionna Jones taking the floor yet. I continue to think this team is going to be terrifying when Jones is on the floor and the offense starts clicking, which it will with this level of talent and a coach like Karl Smesko running the show.
Minnesota’s got a 4-1 record to match Atlanta’s since losing the season opener, with its last two wins decided by 38 combined points after posting an even point differential through the first four games, all of which were within seven-point margins. The Lynx have the WNBA’s best net rating so far according to Her Hoop Stats, ranking fifth in offensive rating (106 points per 100 possessions) and second in defensive rating (96.5 points allowed per 100 possessions). Minnesota’s also the second-best team on the boards overall (54.5% total rebounding rate) and on the offensive glass (30.4% offensive rebounding rate), but the defensive glass hasn’t been a strength thus far (9th in defensive rebounding rate at 73.9%), which could be an issue against the Dream. Atlanta dominated the offensive glass the first time the teams met, hauling in 19 offensive boards compared to 18 defensive rebounds for the Lynx.
Minnesota’s latest win was by 10 points at Chicago on Saturday, and while the Sky displayed the fight that is becoming their hallmark, they scored at a meager rate of just 83.3 points per 100 possessions as the Lynx held a second straight opponent to an offensive rating under 90. That comes after they’d allowed opponents to post ratings of at least 102.4 points per 100 possessions in three of their first four games. Natasha Howard continued her early-season resurgence with a team-high 26 points and 14 rebounds while making 11-of-15 (73.3%) from the field and tying for the team-high with 5 assists. Howard’s efficiency was particularly notable on a day when no other Lynx player who attempted more than one field goal made 50% or better from the field (everyone other than Howard made 37.3% combined).
The game I’ll be rushing home from to miss as little of Dream-Lynx as possible is the first of two this week between a pair of teams in desperate need of a win, the Phoenix Mercury (2-5) and my beloved New York Liberty (3-3) (7:00 ET, USA Network/local affiliates). Phoenix has dropped five out of six since starting the season by walloping the reigning champion Las Vegas Aces in a rematch of the 2025 WNBA Finals, and has lost three straight after letting the game against the Dream slip away on Sunday. The Mercury’s defense has been the issue in all of the losses, which have seen their opponents post offensive ratings of at least 108.6 points per 100 possessions on four occasions. The Liberty have also dropped three straight, with their biggest issues being familiar to anyone who followed the team and/or my writing in 2025. The first is simply that they can’t get their best players on the floor together, let alone keep them there, and that looks like it will continue to be the case tonight as Sabrina Ionescu (back soreness), Satou Sabally (illness) and Betnijah Laney-Hamilton (personal) are all questionable. The good news is Leonie Fiebich wasn’t listed on the latest status report, so she should be set to make her season debut after winning a second straight title in Spain, and I for one can’t wait to see her. The other major problem has been the return of the “what the fuck?” offense that the Liberty ran for prolonged periods in 2025 and also over the last three games, so named for the question I repeatedly ask while they waste possession after possession.
The League Pass slate opens with and is highlighted by the Toronto Tempo (3-4) visiting the Chicago Sky (3-3) (8:00 ET, local affiliates/League Pass). Canada’s team has lost two in a row after winning its previous two, and is 2-3 while allowing offensive ratings of at least 108.4 points per 100 possessions in each of the last five games (at least 117.1 in four of the five). The latest was a 19-point home loss to Portland in the first meeting of the expansion twins, the second straight game both Brittney Sykes and Marina Mabrey were held under 20 points since they both scored 30 in a win at Phoenix. Chicago has lost two in a row since a 3-1 start, and while it got some good injury news with the season debut of Azurá Stevens in the latest loss to Minnesota, there was also some bad news on the status report yesterday as rookie standout Gabriela Jaquez joined DiJonai Carrington and Courtney Vandersloot in being ruled out for tonight.
The West Coast window features three of the four worst teams in the league, and on a five-game night and about 1,200 words in, that means they’re gonna be addressed pretty quickly. They will be addressed, however, since I’ve made it my mission to provide at least some kind of preview for all 330 games. The late game that I’ll certainly find more enjoyable simply because it doesn’t involve Connecticut features the Washington Mystics (2-3) visiting the Seattle Storm (3-4) (10:00 ET, local affiliates/League Pass). The teams from the two Washingtons are meeting for the second time in a row after the Storm cruised to a 97-85 win on Sunday after leading by 22 points through three quarters. Natisha Hiedeman had a season-high 24 points and has scored at least 19 in three of her last four games (18.5 points per game in span) after scoring 22 points in the season’s first three games. The other late game sees the Connecticut Sun (1-6) visit the Portland Fire (3-3) (10:00 ET, local affiliates/League Pass), and I will obviously be rooting for the Fire to go above .500 for the first time in their new history. The Fire are returning home from beating my lifeless Liberty for the second time in three meetings this season behind 18 points from Carla Leite and positive margins on the glass (+2) and in turnovers (+5).